{
 "name": "Agent Recipes salon no-show evidence library",
 "version": "2026-10-21",
 "url": "https://agentrecipes.io/evidence/",
 "method": "Every source page was opened and checked unless noted. Transferable = healthcare or restaurant evidence, not salons. Vendor = a platform's own data with no published method. No peer-reviewed salon or beauty no-show study was found. Conflicting evidence does not change Policy Score points until it is reviewed.",
 "counts": {
  "items": 23,
  "peerReviewed": 9,
  "vendor": 10,
  "rules": 8
 },
 "rules": [
  {
   "id": "R1",
   "rule": "Automated reminders for every appointment",
   "strength": "Strong (transferable from healthcare)",
   "maxPoints": 30,
   "evidence": [
    "E1",
    "E2"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "R2",
   "rule": "Two reminders beat one",
   "strength": "Moderate (transferable from healthcare)",
   "maxPoints": 12,
   "evidence": [
    "E3",
    "E2"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "R7",
   "rule": "Reminders state the specific value of the slot",
   "strength": "Weak–moderate (transferable; 1 RCT found an effect, a 2026 replication found none overall)",
   "maxPoints": 10,
   "evidence": [
    "E6",
    "E23"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "R3",
   "rule": "A payment commitment at booking (size not scored)",
   "strength": "Weak–moderate (uncontrolled vendor data; the only RCT found no effect)",
   "maxPoints": 15,
   "evidence": [
    "E10",
    "E11",
    "E13",
    "E7"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "R6",
   "rule": "Target friction at new clients, past no-shows and far-ahead bookings",
   "strength": "Moderate (transferable from healthcare)",
   "maxPoints": 12,
   "evidence": [
    "E4",
    "E5",
    "E3"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "R5",
   "rule": "Waitlist / backfill for cancellations",
   "strength": "Weak–moderate (vendor data)",
   "maxPoints": 11,
   "evidence": [
    "E16",
    "E17"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "R4",
   "rule": "Written policy shown at booking, notice window ≥24h",
   "strength": "Weak (no comparative evidence)",
   "maxPoints": 10,
   "evidence": []
  },
  {
   "id": "R8",
   "rule": "Confirmation requests: not scored",
   "strength": "Weak",
   "maxPoints": 0,
   "evidence": [
    "E18"
   ]
  }
 ],
 "items": [
  {
   "id": "E1",
   "claim": "SMS reminders raise attendance",
   "finding": "RR 1.14 (1.03–1.26), 67.8%→78.6%; RR 1.08 without one outlier trial; SMS ≈ phone (RR 0.99)",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "Cochrane CD007458",
     "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6485985/"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "2013",
   "type": "peer-reviewed, transferable",
   "strength": "strong",
   "peerReviewed": true,
   "transferable": true,
   "vendor": false,
   "usedByRules": [
    "R1"
   ],
   "citedOnSite": true
  },
  {
   "id": "E2",
   "claim": "Text notifications cut no-shows; multiple beat single",
   "finding": "No-shows 21%→15% (RR 0.75); multiple > single; voice > text",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "Robotham, BMJ Open",
     "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5093388/"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "2016",
   "type": "peer-reviewed, transferable",
   "strength": "strong",
   "peerReviewed": true,
   "transferable": true,
   "vendor": false,
   "usedByRules": [
    "R1",
    "R2"
   ],
   "citedOnSite": true
  },
  {
   "id": "E3",
   "claim": "Two reminders beat one",
   "finding": "Missed: 3d+1d 4.4% vs 1d 5.3% vs 3d 5.8% (n=54,066). High-risk: 20.5% vs 24.2–25.0%",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "Steiner, AJMC",
     "url": "https://www.ajmc.com/view/optimizing-number-and-timing-of-appointment-reminders-a-randomized-trial"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "2018",
   "type": "peer-reviewed RCT, transferable",
   "strength": "moderate",
   "peerReviewed": true,
   "transferable": true,
   "vendor": false,
   "usedByRules": [
    "R2",
    "R6"
   ],
   "citedOnSite": true
  },
  {
   "id": "E4",
   "claim": "Lead time and prior no-shows predict no-shows",
   "finding": "105 studies; mean 23.0% (4.0–79.2%); high lead time and prior no-show history the most common determinants",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "Dantas, Health Policy",
     "url": "https://cdn2.podiatry.com/eZineImages/PracticePerfect/870/No-shows-in-appointment-scheduling.pdf"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "2018",
   "type": "peer-reviewed review, transferable",
   "strength": "moderate",
   "peerReviewed": true,
   "transferable": true,
   "vendor": false,
   "usedByRules": [
    "R6"
   ],
   "citedOnSite": true
  },
  {
   "id": "E5",
   "claim": "Shorter booking horizon",
   "finding": "7.8%→3.9% after the maximum booking horizon was cut from 28 days to 1 day (one practice)",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "Margham, BJGP",
     "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7716879/"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "2021",
   "type": "peer-reviewed, transferable",
   "strength": "moderate",
   "peerReviewed": true,
   "transferable": true,
   "vendor": false,
   "usedByRules": [
    "R6"
   ],
   "citedOnSite": true
  },
  {
   "id": "E6",
   "claim": "Specific-cost wording",
   "finding": "11.1%→8.4% (OR 0.74) in Trial 1; Trial 2 kept the cost message as reference (8.2%) with no control arm, so it is not a replication (see E23); vague \"general cost\" wording 9.9%; social-norm message raised cancellations from 8.8% to 10.5%",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "Hallsworth, PLoS ONE",
     "url": "https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0137306"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "2015",
   "type": "peer-reviewed RCTs, transferable",
   "strength": "moderate",
   "peerReviewed": true,
   "transferable": true,
   "vendor": false,
   "usedByRules": [
    "R7"
   ],
   "citedOnSite": true
  },
  {
   "id": "E7",
   "claim": "A fine didn't help",
   "finding": "€34 fine: 5% vs 5% (130/3,333 vs 131/3,413)",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "Blæhr, BMJ Open",
     "url": "https://portal.findresearcher.sdu.dk/en/publications/effectiveness-and-cost-effectiveness-of-fining-non-attendance-at-/"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": "BMJ site returned 403; abstract read via SDU",
   "date": "2018",
   "type": "peer-reviewed RCT, transferable",
   "strength": "moderate",
   "peerReviewed": true,
   "transferable": true,
   "vendor": false,
   "usedByRules": [
    "R3"
   ],
   "citedOnSite": true
  },
  {
   "id": "E8",
   "claim": "Card guarantee cut no-shows and bookings",
   "finding": "Both fell significantly (p<.001); 6 hotel restaurants",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "Hernandez, Walden",
     "url": "https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/1283"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "2015",
   "type": "dissertation, transferable",
   "strength": "weak",
   "peerReviewed": false,
   "transferable": true,
   "vendor": false,
   "usedByRules": [],
   "citedOnSite": false
  },
  {
   "id": "E9",
   "claim": "Deposit size",
   "finding": "£50 deposit: \"zero no shows\" for about a year; cutting it to £5 brought them back (one restaurant)",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "Drinks Business",
     "url": "https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2023/04/could-bigger-restaurant-booking-deposits-stop-no-show-customers/"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "2023",
   "type": "anecdote",
   "strength": "weak",
   "peerReviewed": false,
   "transferable": false,
   "vendor": false,
   "usedByRules": [],
   "citedOnSite": false
  },
  {
   "id": "E10",
   "claim": "Deposits (Phorest)",
   "finding": "5.4%→1.9% (−65%); typical deposit is 30% of price. Same year in trade press: \"−47%\"; UK no-shows 5% (counties 4.1–9.4%)",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "Phorest",
     "url": "https://www.phorest.com/blog/guarantee-client-commitment-online-deposits-feature/"
    },
    {
     "name": "Estetica",
     "url": "https://www.esteticamagazine.com/2021/06/23/phorest-reveals-uks-worst-areas-for-salon-ghosting/"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "2021",
   "type": "vendor",
   "strength": "weak",
   "peerReviewed": false,
   "transferable": false,
   "vendor": true,
   "usedByRules": [
    "R3"
   ],
   "citedOnSite": true
  },
  {
   "id": "E11",
   "claim": "100% deposits (Kitomba)",
   "finding": "−29% cancels/no-shows vs no deposit",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "Kitomba",
     "url": "https://www.kitomba.com/blog/deposits-vs-cancellation-fees-salons/"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "2024",
   "type": "vendor",
   "strength": "weak",
   "peerReviewed": false,
   "transferable": false,
   "vendor": true,
   "usedByRules": [
    "R3"
   ],
   "citedOnSite": true
  },
  {
   "id": "E12",
   "claim": "Card on file (Fresha)",
   "finding": "\"89% fewer no-shows\" / \"up to 90%\"; reminders \"up to 30%\"; ~10% late cancels + no-shows",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "Estetica",
     "url": "https://www.esteticamagazine.com/2022/07/06/fresha-now-and-into-the-future/"
    },
    {
     "name": "Fresha",
     "url": "https://www.fresha.com/blog/how-to-protect-your-business-against-no-shows-and-late-cancellations"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "2022–23",
   "type": "vendor",
   "strength": "weak",
   "peerReviewed": false,
   "transferable": false,
   "vendor": true,
   "usedByRules": [],
   "citedOnSite": false
  },
  {
   "id": "E13",
   "claim": "Fees (Square, Booksy)",
   "finding": "Square −21% cancels/no-shows; 5% of sellers had fees on in 2021, \"nearly tripled\" by 2023. Booksy −20% cancellations, \"no significant impact on bookings\"",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "Square",
     "url": "https://squareup.com/us/es/press/client-loyalty"
    },
    {
     "name": "Booksy",
     "url": "https://biz.booksy.com/blog/use-booksy-to-reduce-no-shows-and-cancellations"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "2024 / 2021",
   "type": "vendor",
   "strength": "weak",
   "peerReviewed": false,
   "transferable": false,
   "vendor": true,
   "usedByRules": [
    "R3"
   ],
   "citedOnSite": true
  },
  {
   "id": "E14",
   "claim": "Deposits (GlossGenius, Zenoti, Boulevard)",
   "finding": "GlossGenius +32% successful appointments; Zenoti \"95% drop\"; Boulevard \"up to 71%\" (first 90 days)",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "GlossGenius",
     "url": "https://glossgenius.com/blog/does-glossgenius-let-you-take-deposits"
    },
    {
     "name": "Zenoti",
     "url": "https://www.zenoti.com/thecheckin/salon-pos-reporting-integrated-payments"
    },
    {
     "name": "Boulevard",
     "url": "https://www.joinblvd.com/blog/5-reasons-switch-to-boulevard"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "2025 / 2026 / 2022",
   "type": "vendor",
   "strength": "weak",
   "peerReviewed": false,
   "transferable": false,
   "vendor": true,
   "usedByRules": [],
   "citedOnSite": false
  },
  {
   "id": "E15",
   "claim": "UK benchmarks (Fresha, >3M appts)",
   "finding": "All 3.8%; barbers 21.16%; brows/lashes 6.55%; beauty 3.59%; nails 3.55%; hair 3.16%",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "Professional Beauty",
     "url": "https://professionalbeauty.co.uk/beauty-pros-lost-26m-to-no-shows-this-summer"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "May–Aug 2024",
   "type": "vendor, via trade press",
   "strength": "moderate (sample disclosed)",
   "peerReviewed": false,
   "transferable": false,
   "vendor": true,
   "usedByRules": [],
   "citedOnSite": true
  },
  {
   "id": "E16",
   "claim": "US/CA benchmarks (Zenoti), cancel / no-show",
   "finding": "Salons 8/3%; nails 16/1%; barbers 2/4%; membership spas 14/1%; non-membership spas 11/1%; medspas 16/5%",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "Zenoti",
     "url": "https://www.zenoti.com/thecheckin/beauty-wellness-industry-statistics-2025"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "2024 data",
   "type": "vendor",
   "strength": "moderate",
   "peerReviewed": false,
   "transferable": false,
   "vendor": true,
   "usedByRules": [
    "R5"
   ],
   "citedOnSite": true
  },
  {
   "id": "E17",
   "claim": "Backfill",
   "finding": "GlossGenius waitlist fills \"12% more cancellations\". Zenoti, 2025 data: nails cancels 16%→11% while no-shows rose 1%→4%",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "GlossGenius",
     "url": "https://glossgenius.com/no-shows-protection-card-on-file"
    },
    {
     "name": "Zenoti",
     "url": "https://www.zenoti.com/thecheckin/no-show-revenue-calculator"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "undated / 2025",
   "type": "vendor",
   "strength": "weak",
   "peerReviewed": false,
   "transferable": false,
   "vendor": true,
   "usedByRules": [
    "R5"
   ],
   "citedOnSite": true
  },
  {
   "id": "E18",
   "claim": "Two-way texts",
   "finding": "RR 1.03 (0.95–1.12) for attendance vs standard care; 5 trials, Africa",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "Ødegård, PLoS ONE",
     "url": "https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0266717"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "2022",
   "type": "peer-reviewed, transferable",
   "strength": "weak",
   "peerReviewed": true,
   "transferable": true,
   "vendor": false,
   "usedByRules": [
    "R8"
   ],
   "citedOnSite": true
  },
  {
   "id": "E19",
   "claim": "Owner voice",
   "finding": "\"50% deposit… drastically reduced… no shows\"",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "r/Esthetics",
     "url": "https://www.reddit.com/r/Esthetics/comments/1kdhkbq/cancellation_fees_and_deposits/"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": "source page not opened by us; quoted from a secondary summary",
   "date": "undated",
   "type": "anecdote",
   "strength": "weak",
   "peerReviewed": false,
   "transferable": false,
   "vendor": false,
   "usedByRules": [],
   "citedOnSite": false
  },
  {
   "id": "E20",
   "claim": "Consumers accept salon no-show fees",
   "finding": "Canada, n=1,001 (online, weighted, MoE ±3.1): 53% call a barber/salon no-show fee justified; 8% missed a barber/salon appointment in the past year; 4% paid such a fee; 18–34s miss most (43% any appointment). Per person-year, not a per-booking no-show rate",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "Research Co.",
     "url": "https://researchco.ca/2024/08/07/no-show-canada/"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "2024-08-07 (fieldwork Jul 5–7)",
   "type": "independent poll",
   "strength": "moderate (acceptance only)",
   "peerReviewed": false,
   "transferable": false,
   "vendor": false,
   "usedByRules": [],
   "citedOnSite": false
  },
  {
   "id": "E21",
   "claim": "UK cancellation notice and losses (self-report)",
   "finding": "Clients who cancel: 62% give <24h notice; 22% cite forgetting. Owners: 56% lose <5% of monthly revenue, 29% 5–10%, 15% 11–20%",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "Fresha survey",
     "url": "https://www.fresha.com/blog/cancellations-cost-study"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "pub. 2026-02-02 (data Dec 2025; ~200 businesses + 500 clients)",
   "type": "vendor survey",
   "strength": "weak",
   "peerReviewed": false,
   "transferable": false,
   "vendor": true,
   "usedByRules": [],
   "citedOnSite": false
  },
  {
   "id": "E22",
   "claim": "Self-service cancellation vs no-shows by booking channel (Japan)",
   "finding": "June 2026, all shops on Reservia: client self-booked web cancel 17.61% but no-show 1.80% (n=206,014); staff-entered bookings 15.37% / 4.87% (n=144,018); external booking sites 9.47% / 4.14% (n=60,077). Same direction in all 6 segments (hair 17.24% vs 15.36% cancel). No-show = cancelled by the shop on the day",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "Reservia",
     "url": "https://rsvia.co.jp/report/salon_cancel_noshow_gap_2026h1/"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "data 2026-06 (pub. ~2026-08)",
   "type": "vendor platform data, full count, definitions disclosed",
   "strength": "moderate (correlational; Japan)",
   "peerReviewed": false,
   "transferable": false,
   "vendor": true,
   "usedByRules": [],
   "citedOnSite": false
  },
  {
   "id": "E23",
   "claim": "Specific-cost and social-norm wording did NOT replicate",
   "finding": "Denmark, 1 hospital, 3 outpatient depts, 20,867 appointments (Oct 2019–Mar 2020), SMS ≤2 days before, wording rotated every 2 months (time-blocked, not randomised). Overall: neither cost nor social-norm wording reduced no-shows; cost wording raised advance cancellations 2.45%→3.42% (OR 1.41). By dept: social norm cut no-shows in Cardiology 5.23%→4.03% (OR 0.76); cost wording raised them in Endocrinology 3.94%→5.09% (OR 1.31). Men 5.13% vs women 3.62%",
   "sources": [
    {
     "name": "Hansen et al., Behavioural Public Policy",
     "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/behavioural-public-policy/article/replicating-behavioural-insights-in-health-a-quasiexperimental-phase-2-trial-of-integrating-descriptive-social-norms-and-institutional-cost-in-sms-reminders-to-reduce-missed-hospital-appointments/10770DAE0A45CFB426783CF96729A598"
    }
   ],
   "sourceNote": null,
   "date": "pub. 2026-04-23 (data 2019–20)",
   "type": "peer-reviewed quasi-experiment, transferable",
   "strength": "moderate (large n; not randomised)",
   "peerReviewed": true,
   "transferable": true,
   "vendor": false,
   "usedByRules": [
    "R7"
   ],
   "citedOnSite": true
  }
 ],
 "gaps": [
  "Benchmarks conflict. Barbers are 21.16% in the UK (E15) but 4% in the US/Canada (E16). Booksy's \"10–15%\" average has no source (Booksy). Zenoti's E16 page gives both 3% and a \"widely cited… 10 to 15 percent\". Use E15/E16 with region and year. Never quote 10–15% or 30%.",
  "Thin segments. Lashes rest on a single figure (Fresha, UK, summer). Spas have Zenoti data only. No source reports *late* cancellations under a defined window; Zenoti counts all cancellations.",
  "Deposit effects are uncontrolled. Phorest reports both −65% and −47% for the same feature in the same year. Vendor figures range from 20% to 95%, and they come from opt-in, before/after comparisons. The only RCT tested a fine, not a deposit, and found no effect (E7). Whether deposits cost bookings is unresolved: E8 says yes, Booksy (E13) says no.",
  "Untested choices. Deposit size (25/30/50/100%), 24h vs 48h windows, and SMS vs email in salons have no evidence. Vagaro's \"as much as 40%\" and \"66%\" give no method (Vagaro). GlossGenius's \"about 40%\" last-minute cancellations is unsourced.",
  "Confirmation requests. E18 compares two-way texts with standard care, not with one-way reminders. One secondary blog (PandoraBot) states it as \"vs one-way\". That blog's other figures (\"79%\" of fines unpaid; a two-way head-to-head trial) were not verified.",
  "Not scored. Patients writing down their own appointment cut DNAs 18% (Martin, JRSM 2012), but the study was uncontrolled before/after."
 ]
}